According to Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, during the first 200 days of the Trump administration, around 1.6 million undocumented migrants have departed the country; however, several immigration experts claim that this number is based on questionable early survey data.
This is enormous.Noem stated in a news statement on August 14 that this would result in safer streets, financial savings for taxpayers, less strain on hospitals and schools, and improved employment prospects for Americans.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) refused to give data when Newsweek asked for a full analysis, including the number of people who left by self-deportation, instead referring to Noem’s news statement.
Why It Matters
Republicans claim that President Donald Trump promised the biggest mass deportation operation in American history. In an effort to lower the number of unauthorized immigrants in the nation, his administration has implemented strict policies.
What To Know
Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) came up with the estimate of 1.6 million. However, the administration has yet to make any updates to its official online immigration data website.
Since November 2024, deportation statistics have not been made available to the public, and as of right now, self-deportation data from the CBP Home app is not included in monthly Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports.
According to Julia Gelatt, associate director of the Migration Policy Institute’s U.S. Immigration Program, the estimate is based on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), which only takes monthly samples of roughly 60,000 households. According to Gelatt, the Census Bureau explicitly cautions against estimating the size of the foreign-born population using CPS data because the survey’s estimates fluctuate significantly from month to month.
The results were deemed statistically significant by CIS’s head of research, Steven Camarota, who initially made the data public on August 12. However, he acknowledged that immigrants may become less inclined to participate in official surveys, which could make it seem as though the population is declining.
Gelatt acknowledged that fewer foreigners might be responding to the survey out of concern that their data might be given to immigration authorities. She clarified that a mistakenly low estimate of the immigrant population would arise from lower response rates among immigrants.
Noem launched a multimillion-dollar global ad campaign encouraging undocumented immigrants to depart freely as one of her first actions. Officials claim that the campaign and increased enforcement are to blame for the drop.
As part of Operation Homecoming, DHS has also replaced the outdated CBP One App with the CBP Home App. The initiative offers $1,000 and a free trip as inducements for voluntary departure, allowing undocumented immigrants to plan their own self-deportation.
More than 324,000 undocumented immigrants were formally removed from the nation, and more than 352,000 were apprehended, according to DHS.
What People Are Saying
According to Gelatt, a decline of 1.6 million in just six months would be significantly different from previous trends in the United States, even during times of heavy enforcement and economic crisis.
The Cato Institute’s head of immigration research, David Bier, was blunter: There is no question that the number of immigrants has decreased since January. However, the Current Population Survey analysis being relayed by DHS is flawed. It is not appropriate to estimate the number of immigrants, much less illegal immigrants, using the CPS.
He went on to say that the 1.6 million statistic is incorrect due to the limited sample size of the study and the chilling impact of the administration’s actions. Not even close to that number of deportations or self-deportations have been reported by the administration.
1.6 million illegal immigrants have fled the United States in less than 200 days, according to Noem’s press statement.
What Happens Next
Large-scale arrests and deportations are anticipated to continue as the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown heats up.
