Phillies vs. Astros predictions, picks and best bets: Philly to even series between first-place teams?

Published On: July 14, 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will aim to win for the first time in their series against the Houston Astros on Wednesday with top starter Zack Wheeler on the mound. Philadelphia (47-32) maintained its 1.5 game lead in the National League East despite losing 1-0 to the Astros on Tuesday.

At 46-33, Houston has a 4.5-game lead in the American League West. First pitch for the second matchup in the three-game series is set for 8:10 p.m. pm Wednesday. After falling just short in a pitcher’s duel between Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez on Tuesday, the Phillies figure to have an edge with their best starter attempting to win his eighth game against just two losses.

Wheeler enters this game with a 2.91 ERA, and his 0.91 WHIP is tied for third-best in Major League Baseball, per ESPN.com. He’s allowed two earned runs in three starts over 17 innings pitched in June, while also registering 24 strikeouts.

Last Friday against the Mets, he worked five shutout innings with eight strikeouts, while not figuring in a decision for the second time this month.

Colton Gordon, who is 2-1 with a 4.54 ERA, will start for the Astros. The rookie is in the rotation as Houston has admirably navigated through some key pitching injuries while holding onto their lead in the NL West.

In June, Gordon is sporting a 2.61 ERA, allowing five earned runs in 16 innings over three appearances.

View the

best Pennsylvania sportsbooks

to wager on the Phillies at Astros.

Phillies vs. Astros predictions and best bets

First Inning Under 0.5 Runs:

-146 at FanDuel
Under 7.5 Runs:

-121 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts

:

-135 at BetMGM Sportsbook

*Note:

Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

We are looking for a second consecutive successful wagering night in this series. Those who rode with our picks on Tuesday cashed out on all three featured recommendations. They included the same NRFI bet and Under as today, and for Suarez to finish with more than 4.5 strikeouts (he posted seven Ks).

You can consider wagering more than one unit on all three of our Wednesday picks for better returns.

The No Run First Inning bet is recommended again, as opposing batters have hit .160 when facing Wheeler the first time through the lineup this season. Gordon still has some room for positive regression, which is why we also lean to the Under.

Behind his 4.54 ERA is a 3.58 xFIP. We might see another low-scoring contest in the second of this three-game rematch of the 2022 World Series.

This season, Wheeler has registered 11 quality starts, which is tied for second in MLB. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in all of those quality starts. The Philadelphia ace is holding left-handers to a .175 batting average.

Opponents are batting .148 against his four-seam fastball, which he uses 41.7 percent of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Wagering on the Run Line was risky on Tuesday, and we are taking the same approach to fade that wager for Wednesday’s game. In five of the Astros’ last seven victories, they logged five wins by one run.

If you insist on betting a Run Line, go with Philadelphia at -1.5 (+112) at

FanDuel Sportsbook

based on the clear starting pitching advantage. But if this game gets to the end of the bullpens, Houston features the elite Josh Hader as its fireman, while Philly appears to lack a firm closer right now.

Phillies vs. Astros moneyline odds analysis

Why Philadelphia could win as the favorite

Best odds:

-120 at bet365

To this point of the season, the Phillies have won 17 of 25 series. The 17 series wins tied a team record for the most in the first 25 games of a season. Philadelphia also boasts the best series winning percentage in MLB (.700).

The Phils are hoping to win a fifth consecutive series, and a win on Wednesday is essential to taking this current three-game set.

Bryce Harper went down with a wrist injury early in June, yet Philly seized control of the National League East without him. On June 12, the New York Mets were ahead of Philadelphia by 5.5 games, and Harper was already on the IL. But Philly has won nine of its last 12 games overall.

The division lead was taken from the Mets in a 2-1 series win over the weekend. During the absence of their superstar slugger, the Phillies emerged as the division leader.

If Philly scores first behind Wheeler, then consider jumping in with a live bet. This year, the Phillies have won 36 of 46 games when getting on the scoreboard first. Considering the starting pitching matchup, going with the Phils in a pregame moneyline wager is a viable wager, too.

Trea Turner is critical to getting the offense rolling. He leads the National League with 95 hits. He is also seventh in batting average at .300. In June, Turner is batting .299 with four home runs, 10 RBI and five stolen bases.

The

guide to moneyline betting

can give you some additional advantages.

Why Houston could win as the underdog

Best odds:

+130 at Fanatics Sportsbook

If the Astros win on Wednesday, they will clinch their eighth series win in the last 10. Houston has been able to maintain distance at the top of the American League West without superstar Yordan Alvarez, who is on the IL with a fractured hand. He has missed 48 games, and Houston has won 30 of them.

The Astros are looking to win for the 11th time in 14 games. This month, they have won 15 of 19 home games. Houston’s 15-6 record in the month of June is the best in the Majors.

The Astros rank second in the American League in team ERA at 3.48. They rank first in opposing batting average at .219 and are second in WHIP at 1.15 while dealing with notable injuries on the starting staff.

Jeremy Pena is fifth in MLB in batting average, at .326. In June, he is slashing .379/.419/.540 with a .960 OPS. He has homered five times with 15 RBI and nine steals over the past 30 days.